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My predictions in 2010 turn out to be quite true in 2017

By on February 16, 2017

Back in 2010, I wrote a blog post setting out how I expected the industry to develop over the next decade.

In the end, the games industry will polarise into these three segments (can you polarise into three?):

  • Blockbuster games
  • Persistent social games
  • Independent games

I no longer believe that the era of the blockbuster game is over; I believe that “film”-style games will live in harmony with “television”-style games and “independent” games.

But I do believe that the shakeout as we get there will be ugly.

Paul Taylor of Mode 7 Games recently tweeted that he thought my predictions were right. Obviously, I’m blowing my own trumpet here, but I think it’s interesting to look back on how we thought the industry was going to develop and to see if it did. (I was wrong about the strength of Facebook games, but the broad thrust was right.)

Now if only I can work out how the industry is going to develop over the next 10 years.

About Nicholas Lovell

Nicholas is the founder of Gamesbrief, a blog dedicated to the business of games. It aims to be informative, authoritative and above all helpful to developers grappling with business strategy. He is the author of a growing list of books about making money in the games industry and other digital media, including How to Publish a Game and Design Rules for Free-to-Play Games, and Penguin-published title The Curve: