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Zoya Street
Is iOS freemium a lottery?
By Zoya Street on December 22, 2011
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9 games make at least $20 million on the Appstore in 2011 – Games BriefHow much money can you make on iOS? That’s a pretty key question if you are trying to work out if it is worth your effort to develop for …
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I reckon that 9 games made at least $20 million on the app store in 2011. What do you think? bit.ly/tks6e7
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Viable business or game of chance?
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@nicholaslovell Very high revenues from the most successful apps is no surprise. Better question: how easy is it to make a million?
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@nicholaslovell So you’re saying that because 50/400,000 apps made $3M+ this is a good market?
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@wkawczynski Yep. The App Store is a filtered, not a curated market. Limited gatekeeping, hence lots of dross
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@wkawczynski if you have a freemium title with a high quality and an understanding of marketing, you can succeed.
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@gamesbrief I think probabilities are against you – even with a good title and marketing savvy you need a lot of luck and timing to be seen
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@nicholaslovell looking at the top games doesn’t make it a “viable” platform. Look at top winners of lottery.
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@noel_llopis I understand the point but I don’t entirely agree – when the barriers to entry are low, there will be lots of entrants
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@nicholaslovell It’s not about the barrier or entry, it’s about the distribution of profits. App Store is *sharp* exponential decay.
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Is iOS more viable than the console market, or is competition too intense?
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@DRB @wkawczynski Contrast with the console market where you need much more capital AND close relationship with gatekeepers
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@wkawczynski True. But in the console world, you need capital, access to 1st parties AND luck…
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@noel_llopis It’s a viable platform if smart, business-minded people can make a living: having lots of competition is no worse than…
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@noel_llopis … having a console-style gatekeeper. Or do you disagree?
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@PiersHR @DRB @wkawczynski For me the joy is that the F2P model means you can have a viable business model on many fewer downloads
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@gamesbrief viability of platform also has to look at chance of success don’t you think?
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RT @PiersHR: @gamesbrief viability of platform also has to look at chance of success don’t you think? <- yes-ish
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i.e. “chance of success” can be increased by having a gatekeeper limiting who can access the market, which is unhelpful long-term
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@gamesbrief and by viability, I mean from the developer pov – is that what you meant?
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@gamesbrief or assessing which platforms to support including likelihood of success versus returns
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@PiersHR Yes, from the devs point of view
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@gamesbrief Yes, you need more infrastructure and bigger money but low barriers to entry don’t make a good market – competition is insane
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@gamesbrief @wkawczynski Console market has high barriers to entry. But low barriers to entry make competition the barrier to success.
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IAP and tribe-building strategy
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@wkawczynski I agree. The recipe: build or find a tribe, offer a compelling a product for free, use IAP to satisfy fans at multiple prices
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@noel_llopis True. But there is a viable true fan/IAP strategy, isn’t there?
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@nicholaslovell Define viable. One person making a living? Yes. A company? Not really (unless you hit the jackpot)
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@gamesbrief Yes, once you have a tribe/fan base/users, IAP offers an interesting monetization model. Agreed.
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@gamesbrief @DRB @wkawczynski implementing freemium model is no longer a differentiator, your chances of success are still v slim
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@gamesbrief @DRB @PiersHR LOL, no, I think that building the tribe is crazy-hard which makes the iOS market very tough…
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@PiersHR @gamesbrief @wkawczynski Yeah. Time for Gamesbrief to advocate freemium / iOS model is over. Time to advocate an APPROACH is here.
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@wkawczynski @gamesbrief @PiersHR Mr Consonants is right. It’s an opportunity for Gamesbrief to provide very deep and real value. 🙂
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@DRB @PiersHR @wkawczynski Are you saying that I’ve WON. Can’t I celebrate that for a bit before moving to the Approach?
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@DRB Are you saying that I didn’t add value previously 🙁
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@gamesbrief Not at all. Just think iOS, IAP and F2P has passed the tipping point now. Everybody can see they’re the future.
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@gamesbrief Time to pick a new frontier. Tribe finding and building is the real challenge now.
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What do you think? Has Nicholas Lovell won already? What’s the next step for games devs looking to make money in an increasingly competitive free to play games market?
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About Zoya Street
I’m responsible for all written content on the site. As a freelance journalist and historian, I write widely on how game design and development have changed in the past, how they will change in the future, and how that relates to society and culture as a whole. I’m working on a crowdfunded book about the Dreamcast, in which I treat three of the game-worlds it hosted as historical places. I also write at Pocketgamer.biz and The Borderhouse.Nicholas Introduces The Curve
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