Is Firefox going to win?

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I’ve been researching browser usage on the web. And the results make scary reading for Microsoft.

The chart below shows browser usage stats taking from w3schools.com. This will flatter Firefox, as w3schools visitors are web-savvy, often web developers, and are much more likely than the general population to download a new browser. Other sites put IE’s share at over 75%.

As the chart below shows, Firefox has been eroding Microsoft’s market share. The scary thing is that the erosion is steady, consistent and shows no sign of slowing.

Simple analysis suggests that, for w3schools users and if current trends continue, IE will be overtaken by Firefox in May 2009. This would eventually put a big dent in Microsoft’s strategy of owning the home entertainment user, and must be causing sleepless nights in Redmond.

For a free, open source, recent browser to have captured this much of the market shows how much work Microsoft has to do to retain control of the Internet browsing experience. And increasingly, it looks as if control of the operating system and the OS may not be enough.

[Note: Internet Explorer here includes IE 7, 6 and 5. Original data (including information on Opera, Safari and others can be found at http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp]

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